Resilience in uncertain times. The global economy has remained resilient this year, despite differences in the strength of activity across countries and sectors. Inflation has continued to moderate and headline inflation is now back to central bank targets in most economies. Labour market tightness has also eased, although unemployment rates generally remain at or near historical lows. However, risks are casting a shadow over what is otherwise a relatively benign central projection. Key risks pertain to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, inflation turning out more persistent than anticipated and a sharp repricing of risk in financial markets.